Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 25.227170 26.795320 28.467550 30.393449 32.563034 34.946916 37.785900
2025-11-30 22.906792 25.050748 27.463106 30.414078 33.977917 38.214131 43.746215
2025-12-07 21.347850 23.751876 26.545859 30.095630 34.583522 40.217819 48.097022
2025-12-14 19.713957 22.176604 25.099204 28.906858 33.873945 40.356609 49.896737
2025-12-21 18.952379 21.563461 24.730567 28.968732 34.690086 42.491924 54.686822
2025-12-28 18.422789 21.180482 24.593721 29.278482 35.816836 45.135025 60.658309
2026-01-04 17.595913 20.366941 23.842287 28.693324 35.618653 45.797824 63.563614
2026-01-11 17.298413 20.202331 23.909033 29.202416 36.999449 48.974989 71.377331
2026-01-18 16.931385 19.921760 23.795787 29.437221 37.977762 51.627352 78.907060
2026-01-25 16.343521 19.321041 23.214949 28.957170 37.807975 52.337120 82.756888
2026-02-01 15.788757 18.740165 22.631085 28.431424 37.513083 52.780242 86.143171
2026-02-08 15.085019 17.935424 21.706098 27.353390 36.255640 51.378237 85.066960
2026-02-15 14.744367 17.667237 21.595019 27.605701 37.387940 54.861110 97.738861
2026-02-22 14.319897 17.273958 21.298179 27.574572 38.087745 57.771111 111.027761
2026-03-01 13.872075 16.821643 20.883098 27.314277 38.342143 59.822252 123.300065
2026-03-08 13.244215 16.093384 20.033239 26.309590 37.174051 58.683183 124.716529
2026-03-15 12.963927 15.838001 19.856799 26.362125 37.912430 61.826827 143.868808
2026-03-22 12.761947 15.682196 19.815181 26.623994 39.062362 66.193511 173.533728
2026-03-29 12.374914 15.247768 19.336669 26.128946 38.707632 66.860077 187.115379
2026-04-05 12.250141 15.183121 19.409401 26.559716 40.213940 72.654489 241.546948
2026-04-12 12.075315 15.038109 19.350551 26.758080 41.275022 77.630893 309.805968
2026-04-19 11.767364 14.688175 18.960145 26.352318 41.025272 78.767280 349.914520
2026-04-26 11.466740 14.340220 18.559976 25.906970 40.648616 79.451392 390.994770